New data from the U.S. Census Bureau reveals a rebound in durable goods orders for November 2025, marking a 5.3% increase to $323.8 billion following a decline in October. This growth was driven largely by transportation equipment, which saw a significant rise of 14.7%, reaching $119.3 billion, primarily due to strong demand for civilian aircraft bookings. When excluding transportation, orders increased modestly by 0.5%, and excluding defense, the rise was more significant at 6.6%. The data highlights contrasting performance across different industrial sectors, with aerospace and defense showing strong results, while sectors like automotive and machinery showed slower growth.
Aerospace and Defense Lead Rebound in U.S. Manufacturing
The aerospace and defense sectors have been key drivers in the manufacturing rebound. Civilian aircraft orders surged by nearly 98%, underscoring the strong demand in the sector. The increase reflects continued global recovery and business confidence in the aviation industry, with significant orders from commercial airlines looking to expand or replace aging fleets. On the defense side, procurement remained stable, bolstered by long-term contracts that continue to support supply chains.
Federal procurement in defense continues to contribute stability to these sectors, with suppliers positioned to meet the consistent demand from government contracts. These contracts are often long-term, supporting long-cycle production schedules that provide sustained revenue for companies linked to defense, such as Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman.
The continued demand in aerospace and defense is in contrast to other industries where performance has been more inconsistent due to broader economic challenges.
Automotive and Machinery Sectors Experience Slower Growth
In contrast to the strength seen in aerospace and defense, the automotive and machinery sectors have faced more challenges. Automotive orders have shown weaker growth, influenced by consumer demand uncertainty and the ongoing supply chain adjustments. This is partly due to the effects of rising inflation and changing consumer spending habits, which have led to slower-than-expected growth in automotive manufacturing. Companies like Ford and General Motors have continued to adjust production levels, managing inventory while responding to fluctuating demand.
Similarly, machinery orders increased by just 0.5%, signaling a more cautious approach to capital spending within the industrial sector. Capital equipment demand in sectors like manufacturing and construction has been affected by broader economic cycles, with companies showing restraint in expanding production capacities. This slow growth in machinery orders reflects the uncertainty in industrial spending, particularly in areas sensitive to economic cycles.
The slowdown in both sectors highlights the broader divergence in manufacturing performance, with some industries benefiting from long-term demand while others are dealing with cyclical volatility.
Electronics and Equipment Show Steady Gains
Certain industrial segments, such as electrical equipment, appliances, and components, posted a 1.7% increase in orders, reflecting steady demand. Fabricated metal products and computers also recorded modest improvements. These gains suggest that while overall manufacturing growth remains uneven, certain sectors are seeing a more stable trajectory, driven by consistent demand for technological components and industrial equipment.
The growth in electrical equipment and related segments is partially driven by infrastructure projects and the ongoing expansion of renewable energy technologies. Companies in these sectors, such as General Electric and Siemens, are experiencing steady demand for their products, particularly in areas related to energy efficiency and power generation.
Electronics continues to benefit from structural demand in semiconductors and consumer electronics, although the growth has been more gradual compared to aerospace or defense. This reflects a balanced performance in the electronics sector, where the ongoing demand for technological advancements and equipment remains solid, but not explosive.
Challenges in U.S. Manufacturing Remain Amid Growth Opportunities
As U.S. manufacturing experiences this uneven performance across sectors, the operational challenges and opportunities become more apparent. Supply chain leaders in the U.S. are increasingly faced with the challenge of navigating sector-specific demand patterns, with some sectors like aerospace and defense offering more stability, while others like automotive and machinery require more cautious planning.
For supply chain executives, the ongoing divergence in manufacturing sector performance presents both challenges and opportunities. Sectors such as aerospace and defense present long-term growth potential due to federal procurement and defense spending, which continues to provide a stable foundation for these industries. On the other hand, cyclical industries like automotive and machinery require more careful capital allocation, as businesses balance production schedules against fluctuating demand and broader economic pressures.
Strategic planning in these sectors must be adaptable, recognizing where there are stable, long-term opportunities and where more caution is necessary. Executives are advised to continue focusing on resilient sectors while staying attuned to the shifting market conditions in more volatile industries.
